The near-term forecast for IL business community

*Moody reports low expectations for performance of IL economy, including jobs, population and business declines   

*IL economy projected to grow 1.4%, underperforming both the Midwest and national economy (IL policy chart)

*Annual national survey of CEOs of major companies ranks IL in 48th place as a state for locating or expanding a business.  Key issues include high taxes, fiscal instability of the state, massive level of debt servicing that deprives funds for all other spending and crime, especially in major cities. 

How does a company recruit and retain talent in a state as badly managed as IL?

Business formation is vital to growth of the economy

IL business formation is composed of self-employed individuals (non business employers with no employees) and employer firms. Best estimate for 2025 is that IL has 1.4M businesses.  The 1.4M enterprises are a vital source of tax and other revenue for both state and local government.   Per Grok

IL has steadily lost employers for more than a decade.   Here is some recent data. 

Granted, that there are likely a number of reasons for a firm to leave IL for another state.  Here is a record of moves related to taxation.

Chicago is the center of the economy of IL

The Chicago area is the heart of the business community of IL.  In 2015, there were 54k+ businesses operating in Chicago.   Today there are 44k+, a decline of 20%.  Consider the implications of business and job losses on the Magnificent Mile, the showcase of retailers.  A loss of 51% of business licenses over a ten year period.  Watertower place, a flagship store on the Magnificant Mile, has a vacancy rate of 30%.

Can IL employers prosper and thrive in a highly regulated environment?

Compliance costs for meeting regulatory standards reduce funds for all other operating expenses, such as expansion for new equipment, facilities or payroll.

Performance Indicators of a healthy city economy:

• Job creation
• Retention of major employers
• Manageable city spending levels that allow the economy to grow and prosper
• Rising demand for commercial office space
• Steady growth of population and supply of new workers